What have been the trends and what are the prospects for European transport systems?

欧洲交通系统的趋势和发展前景如何？

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A It is difficult to conceive of vigorous economic growth without an efficient transport system. Although modern information technologies can reduce the demand for physical transport by facilitating teleworking and teleservices, the requirement for transport continues to increase. There are two key factors behind this trend. For passenger transport, the determining factor is the spectacular growth in car use. The number of cars on European Union (EU) roads saw an increase of three million cars each year from 1990 to 2010, and in the next decade the EU will see a further substantial increase in its fleet.

[p:a] 没有高效的交通系统，很难想象经济能够实现强劲增长。尽管现代信息技术通过促进远程办公和远程服务降低了对实物运输的需求，但对运输的需求仍在持续上升。这一趋势背后有两个关键因素。在客运交通方面，汽车使用量的惊人增长是决定性因素。从1990年到2010年，欧盟道路上的汽车数量每年增加300万辆，而在未来十年，欧盟的汽车保有量还将大幅增加。

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B As far as goods transport is concerned, growth is due to a large extent to changes in the European economy and its system of production. In the last 20 years, as internal frontiers have been abolished, the EU has moved from a `stock` economy to a `flow` economy. This phenomenon has been emphasised by the relocation of some industries, particularly those which are labour intensive, to reduce production costs, even though the production site is hundreds or even thousands of kilometres away from the final assembly plant or away from users.

[p:b] 在货物运输方面，增长很大程度上归因于欧洲经济及其生产体系的变革。在过去20年中，随着内部边境的取消，欧盟已从“存量”经济转变为“流量”经济。这一现象通过一些产业（尤其是劳动密集型产业）的迁移得以凸显，这些产业为了降低生产成本，即使生产基地距离最终装配厂或用户数百甚至数千公里远。

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C The strong economic growth expected in countries which are candidates for entry to the EU will also increase transport flows, in particular road haulage traffic. In 1998, some of these countries already exported more than twice their 1990 volumes and imported more than five times their 1990 volumes. And although many candidate countries inherited a transport system which encourages rail, the distribution between modes has tipped sharply in favour of road transport since the 1990s. Between 1990 and 1998, road haulage increased by 19.4%, while during the same period rail haulage decreased by 43.5%, although – and this could benefit the enlarged EU – it is still on average at a much higher level than in existing member states.

[p:c] 预计进入欧盟候选国的强劲经济增长也将增加运输流量，尤其是公路货运。1998年，这些国家中一些国家的出口量已超过1990年的两倍，进口量则超过1990年的五倍。尽管许多候选国继承了以铁路运输为主的交通体系，但自20世纪90年代以来，各运输方式之间的分布已明显偏向公路运输。在1990年至1998年间，公路货运增长了19.4%，而同期铁路货运则下降了43.5%。不过——这或许有利于扩大后的欧盟——铁路货运的平均水平仍远高于现有成员国。

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D However, a new imperative – sustainable development – offers an opportunity for adapting the EU`s common transport policy. This objective, agree by the Gothenburg European Council, has to be achieved by integrating environmental considerations into Community policies, and shifting the balance between modes of transport lies at the heart of its strategy. The ambitious objective can only be fully achieved by 2020, but proposed measures are nonetheless a first essential step towards a sustainable transport system which will ideally be in place in 30 years` time, that is by 2040.

[p:d] 然而，一项新的紧迫任务——可持续发展——为调整欧盟的共同交通政策提供了机遇。这一目标由哥德堡欧洲理事会达成共识，必须通过将环境因素纳入共同体政策，并调整交通方式之间的平衡来实现，而这正是其战略的核心所在。尽管这一雄心勃勃的目标要到2020年才能完全实现，但所提出的措施仍是迈向可持续交通体系的第一步，而理想的可持续交通体系预计将在30年后的2040年建成。

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E In 1998, energy consumption is the transport sector was to blame for 28% of emissions of CO2, the leading greenhouse gas. According to the latest estimates, if nothing is done to reverse the traffic growth trend, CO2 emissions from transport can be expected to increase by around 50% to 1,113 billion tonnes by 2020, compared with the 739 billion tonnes recorded in 1990. Once again, road transport is the main culprit since it alone accounts for 84% of the CO2 emissions attributable to transport. Using alternative fuels and improving energy efficiency is thus both an ecological necessity and a technological challenge.

[p:e] 1998年，交通运输部门的能源消耗占二氧化碳排放量的28%，而二氧化碳是主要的温室气体。根据最新估计，如果无法扭转交通增长趋势，到2020年，交通运输产生的二氧化碳排放量预计将比1990年的739亿吨增加约50%，达到1,113亿吨。再次强调，公路运输是主要责任方，其贡献占交通运输相关二氧化碳排放总量的84%。因此，使用替代燃料和提高能源效率既是生态上的必要举措，也是一项技术挑战。

FAt the same time greater efforts must be made to achieve a modal shift. Such a change cannot be achieved overnight, all the less so after over half a century of constant deterioration in favour of road. This has reached such a pitch that today rail freight services are facing marginalisation, with just 8% of market share, and with international goods trains struggling along at an average speed of 18km/h. Three possible options have emerged.

[p:f]与此同时，必须付出更大努力以实现运输方式的转变。这种转变不可能一蹴而就，尤其在经历了半个多世纪以来持续偏袒公路运输的恶化之后更是如此。目前情况已严重到今天铁路货运服务面临边缘化，市场份额仅为8%，国际货运列车平均速度仅18公里/小时。因此，出现了三种可能的选择。

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G The first approach would consist of focusing on road transport solely through pricing. This option would not be accompanied by complementary measures in the other modes of transport. In the short term it might curb the growth in road transport through the better loading ratio of goods vehicles and occupancy rates of passenger vehicles expected as a result of the increase in the price of transport. However, the lack of measures available to revitalise other modes of transport would make it impossible for more sustainable modes of transport to take up the baton.

[p:g] 第一种方案是仅通过价格手段来控制公路运输。该方案不会同时采取其他交通方式的配套措施。短期内，由于运输价格上涨，货运车辆的装载率和客运车辆的载客率有望提高，这或许能抑制公路运输的增长。然而，由于缺乏振兴其他交通方式的措施，更可持续的交通方式将难以接棒。

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H The second approach also concentrates on road transport pricing but is accompanied by measures to increase the efficiency of the other modes (better quality of services, logistics, technology). However, this approach does not include investment in new infrastructure, nor does it guarantee better regional cohesion. It could help to achieve greater uncoupling than the first approach, bust road transport would keep the lion`s share of the market and continue to concentrate on saturated arteries, despite being the most polluting of the modes. It is therefore not enough to guarantee the necessary shift of the balance.

[p:h] 第二种方法同样关注道路运输定价，但同时采取措施提高其他交通方式的效率（如提升服务质量、物流和科技水平）。然而，这种方法不包括对新基础设施的投资，也无法保证区域一体化程度的提高。它可能比第一种方法实现更大的脱钩，但道路运输仍会占据市场主导地位，并继续集中在饱和的主干道上，尽管这是所有交通方式中污染最严重的。因此，仅靠保障必要的平衡转移是不够的。

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I The third approach, which is not new, comprises a series of measures ranging from pricing to revitalising alternative modes of transport and targeting investment in the trans-European network. This integrated approach would allow the market shares of the other mode to return to their 1998 levels and thus make a shift of balance. It is far more ambitious than it looks, bearing in mind the historical imbalance in favour of roads for the last fifty years, but would achieve a market break in the link between road transport growth and economic growth, without placing restrictions on the mobility of people and goods.

[p:i] 第三种方法虽非新颖，但包含一系列措施，从定价到振兴替代交通方式，并重点投资于跨欧洲网络。这种综合策略将使其他交通方式的市场份额恢复至1998年的水平，从而实现供需结构的调整。尽管考虑到过去五十年来道路运输一直占据优势地位，这一目标远比表面看起来更具雄心，但能在不限制人员和货物流动的前提下，打破公路运输增长与经济增长之间的关联。