A The automotive sector is well used to adapting to automation in manufacturing. The implementation of robotic car manufacture from the 1970s onwards led to significant cost savings and improvements in the reliability and flexibility of vehicle mass production. A new challenge to vehicle production is now on the horizon and, again, it comes from automation. However, this time it is not to do with the manufacturing process, but with the vehicles themselves.

A 汽车行业已经很好地适应了自动化制造。从20世纪70年代开始投入使用的机器人汽车制造，能够节省大量成本，并提高汽车批量生产的可靠性和灵活性。汽车生产面临的新挑战已经迫在眉睫，且同样的，这也源于自动化。但是，这次与制造过程无关，而与汽车本身有关。

Research projects on vehicle automation are not new. Vehicles with limited self-driving capabilities have been around for more than 50 years, resulting in significant contributions towards driver assistance systems. But since Google announced in 2010 that it had been trialling self-driving cars on the streets of California, progress in this field has quickly gathered pace.

关于汽车自动化的研究项目并不罕见。配备有限自动驾驶功能的车辆已有50多年历史了，为辅助驾驶系统作出了重大贡献。但自从谷歌于2010年宣布他们已在加利福尼亚街头试用过自动驾驶汽车后，这一领域的进展便迅速加快了步伐。

B There are many reasons why technology is advancing so fast. One frequently cited motive is safety; indeed, research at the UK's Transport Research Laboratory has demonstrated that more than 90 percent of road collisions involve human error as a contributory factor, and it is the primary cause in the vast majority. Automation may help to reduce the incidence of this.

B 技术发展如此之快有很多原因。一个经常被提及的原因是安全性;事实上，英国运输研究实验室的研究表明，超过90%的道路交通事故的主要原因都是人为的。而自动化有助于减少这种情况的发生。

Another aim is to free the time people spend driving for other purposes. If the vehicle can do some or all of the driving, it may be possible to be productive, to socialise or simply to relax while automation systems have responsibility for safe control of the vehicle. If the vehicle can do the driving, those who are challenged by existing mobility models – such as older or disabled travellers – may be able to enjoy significantly greater travel autonomy.

另一个目的是节约人们花在驾驶上的时间而去做其他事情。如果汽车自身可以进行部分或全部驾驶，由自动化系统负责车辆的安全控制，或许会很高效，人们可以利用这个时间去社交，或只是放放松。如果汽车能够自己驾驶，那些受到现有出行方式限制的人则可能会享有更大的旅行自主权，例如，老年人或残障旅客。

C Beyond these direct benefits, we can consider the wider implications for transport and society, and how manufacturing processes might need to respond as a result. At present, the average car spends more than 90 percent of its life parked. Automation means that initiatives for car-sharing become much more viable, particularly in urban areas with significant travel demand. If a significant proportion of the population choose to use shared automated vehicles, mobility demand can be met by far fewer vehicles.

C 除了这些直接的好处之外，我们还可以考虑其对运输和社会所产生的更为广泛的影响，以及制造过程该如何应对。目前，普通汽车90%以上的时间都是停着的。自动化意味着汽车共享计划变得更为可行，尤其是在出行需求很大的市区。如果相当一部分人口选择使用共享自动驾驶汽车，那么不需要很多汽车就能满足人们的出行需求了。

D The Massachusetts Institute of Technology investigated automated mobility in Singapore, finding that fewer than 30 percent of the vehicles currently used would be required if fully automated car sharing could be implemented. If this is the case, it might mean that we need to manufacture far fewer vehicles to meet demand.

D 麻省理工学院对新加坡的全自动出行进行了调查，发现如果能够实现全自动汽车共享，那么只需要现有汽车数量的不到30%就够了。如果是这样的话，可能意味着汽车产量大幅减少也能满足市场需求。

However, the number of trips being taken would probably increase, partly because empty vehicles would have to be moved from one customer to the next.

但是，汽车出行次数可能会增加，一部分原因是空车必须从一个客户转移到另一个客户那里。

Modelling work by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute suggests automated vehicles might reduce vehicle ownership by 43 percent, but that vehicles' average annual mileage would double as a result. As a consequence, each vehicle would be used more intensively, and might need replacing sooner. This faster rate of turnover may mean that vehicle production will not necessarily decrease.

密歇根大学交通研究所的模型研究表明，自动驾驶汽车可能会使汽车拥有量减少43%，但汽车的平均年行驶里程也将因此增加一倍。最终结果是，每辆车的使用频率增加了，且可能需要更换的更频繁。更快的周转率可能意味着汽车的产量不一定会减少。

E Automation may prompt other changes in vehicle manufacture. If we move to a model where consumers are tending not to own a single vehicle but to purchase access to a range of vehicles through a mobility provider, drivers will have the freedom to select one that best suits their needs for a particular journey, rather than making a compromise across all their requirements.

E 自动化可能会促使汽车制造业发生其他变化。如果我们采用这样一种模式--消费者不是买一辆车，而是通过出行服务提供商购买各种车辆的使用权，那么驾驶者将可以自由选择最适合自己特定行程需求的车辆，而不是在他们所有要求之间折衷。

Since, for most of the time, most of the seats in most cars are unoccupied, this may boost production of a smaller, more efficient range of vehicles that suit the needs of individuals. Specialised vehicles may then be available for exceptional journeys, such as going on a family camping trip or helping a son or daughter move to university.

因为大多数情况下，大多数汽车的大部分座位都是空的，所以这可能会刺激生产更小且更高效的汽车，以满足个性化需求。到时也许也会有专门的车辆来满足特殊的行程需要，例如去家庭露营旅行或是送孩子去学校。

F There are a number of hurdles to overcome in delivering automated vehicles to our roads. These include the technical difficulties in ensuring that the vehicle works reliably in the infinite range of traffic, weather and road situations it might encounter; the regulatory challenges in understanding how liability and enforcement might change when drivers are no longer essential for vehicle operation; and the societal changes that may be required for communities to trust and accept automated vehicles as being a valuable part of the mobility landscape.

F 在自动驾驶汽车真正能够应用前，还有许多障碍需要我们克服。一是技术难题;在无数未知的交通、天气和道路状况下，如何确保车辆仍能可靠行驶;二是监管挑战;当驾驶员不再是汽车操作中必不可少的部分后，责任和执法将会如何变化:三是社会变革;如何让社会大众信任自动驾驶车辆，并接受其成为一项重要出行工具。

G It's clear that there are many challenges that need to be addressed but, through robust and targeted research, these can most probably be conquered within the next 10 years. Mobility will change in such potentially significant ways and in association with so many other technological developments, such as telepresence and virtual reality, that it is hard to make concrete predictions about the future. However, one thing is certain: change is coming, and the need to be flexible in response to this will be vital for those involved in manufacturing the vehicles that will deliver future mobility.

G 虽然还有很多挑战需要解决，但是通过有针对性的研究，人们很可能在未来10年内克服这些挑战。在众多其他技术的发展下，出行方式可能会以具有重大意义的方式发生变化，例如远程操控和虚拟现实，因此很难对未来做出具体的预测。但是，有一点是可以确定的:变革即将到来，对于那些参与制造未来交通工具的人来说，灵活应对这一问题至关重要。