What have been the trends and what are the prospects for European transport systems?
欧洲交通运输系统有怎样的发展趋势和前景?
14
AIt is difficult to conceive of vigorous economic growth without an efficient transport system. Although modern information technologies can reduce the demand for physical transport by facilitating teleworking and teleservices, the requirement for transport continues to increase. There are two key factors behind this trend. For passenger transport, the determining factor is the spectacular growth in car use. The number of cars on European Union (EU) roads saw an increase of three million cars each year from 1990 to 2010, and in the next decade the EU will see a further substantial increase in its fleet.
A 离开了高效的交通运输系统，人们很难期望迅猛的经济增长。尽管现代信息技术可以通过促进远程办公和电信业务减少对机械运输的需求，但是对交通运输的需求仍在增加。这一趋势背后有两个核心因素。对客运而言，决定性因素是汽车使用的惊人增长。自1990年至2010年，欧盟道路上的汽车数量经历了每年三百万辆的增长，并且在未来十年间欧盟将见证车辆数量的进一步大幅增长。
15
BB As far as goods transport is concerned, growth is due to a large extent to changes in the European economy and its system of production. In the last 20 years, as internal frontiers have been abolished, the EU has moved from a `stock` economy to a `flow` economy. This phenomenon has been emphasised by the relocation of some industries, particularly those which are labour intensive, to reduce production costs, even though the production site is hundreds or even thousands of kilometres away from the final assembly plant or away from users.
B 对货运而言，这种增长很大程度上是由于欧洲经济及其生产方式的改变。在过去20年的时间里，由于内部边界被废除，欧盟从储备型经济转向流动型经济。这种现象由于—些行业(尤其是那些劳动密集型行业)的迁址而加剧，为了降低生产成本，这些行业将工厂设在距离总装配厂或用户几百甚至几千公里的地方。
16
CThe strong economic growth expected in countries which are candidates for entry to the EU will also increase transport flows, in particular road haulage traffic. In 1998, some of these countries already exported more than twice their 1990 volumes and imported more than five times their 1990 volumes. And although many candidate countries inherited a transport system which encourages rail, the distribution between modes has tipped sharply in favour of road transport since the 1990s. Between 1990 and 1998, road haulage increased by 19.4%, while during the same period rail haulage decreased by 43.5%, although – and this could benefit the enlarged EU – it is still on average at a much higher level than in existing member states.
C 欧盟候选国所预期的巨大经济增长将同样带来运输流量的增加，尤其是公路的交通运输量。在1998年，其中一些国家的出口量已经达到1990年时的两倍，进口量达到1990年时的五倍以上。尽管很多候选国家继续沿用其鼓励铁路的运输系统，但自20世纪90年代以来，运输模式发生了显著变化，公路运输更受青辣。在1990年至1998年期间，公路运输量增长了19．4％，而同期铁路运辅量减少了43．5％。尽管这些候选国家的铁路运输平均来看依然处于比现有成员国更商的水平，但这对于扩大之后的欧盟而言还是根有利的。
17
DHowever, a new imperative – sustainable development – offers an opportunity for adapting the EU`s common transport policy. This objective, agree by the Gothenburg European Council, has to be achieved by integrating environmental considerations into Community policies, and shifting the balance between modes of transport lies at the heart of its strategy. The ambitious objective can only be fully achieved by 2020, but proposed measures are nonetheless a first essential step towards a sustainable transport system which will ideally be in place in 30 years` time, that is by 2040.
D 然而，可持续发展这一新的紧迫需求，为调整欧盟的公共运输政策提供了机会。这一目标受到哥德堡欧洲理事会的认同，需要在制定公共政策时考虑环境因素，其策略的核心在于运输方式的平衡。这一宏伟目标直至2020年才能完全实现，然而提出措施是实现可持续运输系统的第一个关健步骤；理想情况下，可持续运输系统在30年的时间内可以创建完备，也就是到2040年。
18
EIn 1998, energy consumption is the transport sector was to blame for 28% of emissions of CO2, the leading greenhouse gas. According to the latest estimates, if nothing is done to reverse the traffic growth trend, CO2 emissions from transport can be expected to increase by around 50% to 1,113 billion tonnes by 2020, compared with the 739 billion tonnes recorded in 1990. Once again, road transport is the main culprit since it alone accounts for 84% of the CO2 emissions attributable to transport. Using alternative fuels and improving energy efficiency is thus both an ecological necessity and a technological challenge.
E 二氧化碳是最主要的温室气体，在1998年，28％二氧化碳的排放被归咎于运输业的能源消耗。根据最近的估算，如果不采取任何措施扭转交通运输增长的趋势，到2020年，来自交通运输的二氧化碳排放量预计将达到1．113万亿吨，与1990年记录的7390亿吨相比，增长约50％。再一次，公路运输成为罪魁祸首，因为单其一项就占到了可归于运输的二氧化碳排放量的84％，因此，使用替代燃料和提升能源效率既是生态的需要，也是技术的挑战。
FAt the same time greater efforts must be made to achieve a modal shift. Such a change cannot be achieved overnight, all the less so after over half a century of constant deterioration in favour of road. This has reached such a pitch that today rail freight services are facing marginalisation, with just 8% of market share, and with international goods trains struggling along at an average speed of 18km/h. Three possible options have emerged.
F 同对，为了实现这一摸式转变，人们必须做出更多努力。这样的转变不悬一夜之间就可以实现的，毕竟半个多世纪以来公路的状况持续变坏。这一趋势已经恶化到了一定程度，如今铁路运输正面临边缘化，仅占8％的市场份额，国际货物列车在平均每小时18公里的速度线上挣扎。在这种情况下，出现了三种可以选择的方法。
19
GThe first approach would consist of focusing on road transport solely through pricing. This option would not be accompanied by complementary measures in the other modes of transport. In the short term it might curb the growth in road transport through the better loading ratio of goods vehicles and occupancy rates of passenger vehicles expected as a result of the increase in the price of transport. However, the lack of measures available to revitalise other modes of transport would make it impossible for more sustainable modes of transport to take up the baton.
G 第一种方法是仅仅通过定价调整公路运输，不会对其他运输方式采取任何补充措施。运输价格增加预计会带来货运车辆更好的荷载比倒以及客运车辆更合理的载客率，短期内这或许可以控制公路运输的增长。然而，由于缺少使其他运输方式重获活力的方法，更可持续的运输方式不可能成为主流。
20
HThe second approach also concentrates on road transport pricing but is accompanied by measures to increase the efficiency of the other modes (better quality of services, logistics, technology). However, this approach does not include investment in new infrastructure, nor does it guarantee better regional cohesion. It could help to achieve greater uncoupling than the first approach, bust road transport would keep the lion`s share of the market and continue to concentrate on saturated arteries, despite being the most polluting of the modes. It is therefore not enough to guarantee the necessary shift of the balance.
H 第二种方法同样着眼于公路运输定价，但是与提升其他运输方式效率的举措相结合，如更好的服务质量、物流和技术)。然而，这一方法并不包括投资新的基础设施，也并不保证更好的区域凝聚力。它比第一种方法更有利于实理运输方式的分摊，但是公路运输依然会保持最大的份额，并持续道路饱和状态，尽管这是运输方式中最为污染的。因此，这种方法并不足以保证向平衡状态进行必要的转变。
21
IThe third approach, which is not new, comprises a series of measures ranging from pricing to revitalising alternative modes of transport and targeting investment in the trans-European network. This integrated approach would allow the market shares of the other mode to return to their 1998 levels and thus make a shift of balance. It is far more ambitious than it looks, bearing in mind the historical imbalance in favour of roads for the last fifty years, but would achieve a market break in the link between road transport growth and economic growth, without placing restrictions on the mobility of people and goods.
I 第三种并非全新的方法，它包括一系列举措，从定价到激活其他运输方式以及对跨欧网络进行定向投资。这种综合方法会使其他运输方式的市场份额回到它们1998年时的水平，并由此转向平衡状态。考虑到在过去50年间人们偏好公路运输这种历史上的不平衡状态，这种方法远比表面看上去更加宏伟。不会对人员和货物流动性造成限制，但是会显著削弱公路运输增长和经济增长之间的联系。